Introduction
Gastric cancer is one of the most prevalent tumors, with the fifth-highest incidence and fourth-highest mortality rate all over the world [1]. Exploring prognostic and therapeutic biomarkers in GC is of great importance and urgency. Cancer is an aging disease and cellular senescence plays an essential role in promoting cancer development and tumor progression [2], suggesting the great potential of senescence-related genes in predicting prognosis and pharmacological response.
In mammalian cells, stimulated oncogenes accompanied by inactivated tumor-suppressor genes (TSGs) are crucial inducements of proliferative stress and induction of cellular senescence, which therefore limit tumor growth [3–5]. For instance, expression of HRASG12V is usually associated with upregulated senescence-related genes including p53, p19ARF, p16INK4a, Pml, and retinoblastoma, which work as an obstructive factor for tumor initiation [6, 7]. However, further stimulation of oncogenes or deactivation of TSGs elicits bypass of the previous senescence, contributing to tumorigenesis [8, 9].
Senescence-related secretory phenotype (SASP) refers to the ability of senescent tumor cells to actively produce a wide variety of proteins, many of which are pro-inflammatory cytokines or pro-inflammatory substances in themselves [10, 11]. SASP is a double-edged sword due to its both antitumorigenic and cancer-promoting impact by propagating senescence to other tumor cells and recruiting immune cells to clear senescence tumor cells, respectively [12–15]. Given the regulatory effect of tumoral senescence on tumor-infiltrating immune cells, we hypothesized that the activation of senescence-related genes may be involved in immune cell infiltration and thereby affect immunotherapy efficacy in GC.
Here, based on senescence-related genes, we sought to develop a model for the prognostic stratification of GC. A favorable prognosis was observed in the low-risk group, together with low sensitivities to the inhibitors against the PI3K-mTOR and angiogenesis, low densities of immunosuppressive tumor-infiltrating immune cells, and a high response rate to pembrolizumab monotherapy.
Results
Analysis of differentially expressed genes for potential prognostic signature
Baseline characteristics of the patients used in the training and validation sets were depicted in Supplementary Table 1. We first tried to identify senescence-related differentially expressed genes (DEGs) in patients with GC. In total, 1,396 DEGs between tumor and non-tumorous tissues in the cancer genome atlas-stomach adenocarcinoma (TCGA-STAD) cohort were identified (Figure 1A). Of these, 36 genes were senescence-related genes (Figure 1B). The chromosomal locations of these senescence-related DEGs are shown in Figure 1C. We also demonstrated the mutations in the 36 senescence-related DEGs in GC patients and the top 20 most mutated senescence-related DEGs in Figure 1D. The mutational frequency of TP53 was the highest (46%) followed by PIK3CA (16%, Figure 1D).

According to the Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) pathway analysis, these DEGs were mainly enriched in cell cycle regulation, homologous recombination, base excision repair, and P53 pathway (P < 0.05, Figure 1E). As expected, the 36 senescence-related DEGs were involved in DNA replication, telomere maintenance, negative cell cycle regulation, and DNA metabolism (P < 0.05, Figure 1F), which are consist in pathways related to cell cycle and cellular senescence. These findings collectively suggested the potential association between the senescence-related DEGs and the tumorigenesis of GC.
Prognostic model construction and validation
Of the 36 senescence-related DEGs, six senescence-related DEGs were identified due to their association with overall survival (OS) as continuous variables in the TCGA-STAD cohort (P < 0.05, Figure 2A, Supplementary Table 2). For instance, poorer OS was observed in patients with higher expression of SERPINE1 (P < 0.001; hazard ratio (HR) = 1.93; 95% confidence interval (95% CI), 1.38–2.71; Figure 2B), while patients with high expression of FEN1 exhibited improved OS (P = 0.003;HR, 0.61; 95% CI, 0.44–0.85; Figure 2C).

Based on the mRNA levels of these six genes, a risk-score was then developed and defined as follows: risk-score = (0.196 × SERPINE1) + (0.120 × APOC3) + (0.090 × SNCG) + (0.015 × PDGFRB) – (0.128 × TCF3) – (0.133 × FEN1). Assigned with a risk-score, patients were stratified into high- or low-risk groups by the median value in the cohort. Patients in the high-risk group had higher expression of SERPINE1, APOC3, PDGFRB, and SNCG and lower expression of FEN1 and TCF3 (P < 0.001, Figure 2D). In the TCGA-STAD cohort, the low-risk group exhibited improved OS (P < 0.001; HR = 2.03; 95% CI, 1.45–2.84; Figure 2E). The 1-, 3-, and 5-year area under curves (AUCs) of the risk-score were 0.639, 0.678, and 0.681, respectively (Figure 2F). These results were further verified in two validation cohorts (GSE84437 and GSE13861). Patients with higher risk had higher levels of SERPINE1, APOC3, PDGFRB, and SNCG, and lower FEN1 and TCF3 expressions (GSE84437: Figure 2G, GSE13861: Figure 2J, P < 0.01), together with worse OS (GSE84437: P = 0.005; HR = 1.48, 95% CI, 1.13–1.95; Figure 2H; GSE13861: P = 0.03; HR = 2.23, 95% CI, 1.07–4.62; Figure 2K). The signature predicted 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS with AUCs of 0.608, 0.590, and 0.606 in the GSE84437 cohort, and 0.705, 0.583 (Figure 2I), and 0.586 in the GSE13861 cohort (Figure 2L), respectively.
Univariable and multivariable Cox regression analysis was conducted to examine the independence of the novel prognostic signature. After adjusted for key covariates including TNM stage and age, the signature remained robust in OS differentiation in the TCGA-STAD cohort (P < 0.001; HR = 2.23, 95% CI, 1.57–3.12; Table 1), the GSE84437 cohort (P = 0.02; HR = 1.40, 95% CI, 1.07–1.85; Table 1), and the GSE13861 cohort (P = 0.10; HR = 1.87, 95% CI, 0.87–4.03; Table 1). The results concerning the independence of the six-gene signature were consistent between the three cohorts, indicating the robustness of our model in predicting prognosis.
Table 1. Univariable and multivariable Cox regression in TCGA-STAD and GSE84437 cohorts.
| Parameter | Univariable analysis | Multivariable analysis | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| HR (95% CI) | P value | HR (95% CI) | P value | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| TCGA-STAD cohort | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Age (≥65 vs. <65) | 1.49 (1.06–2.10) | 0.02 | 1.67 (1.17–2.37) | 0.01 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Sex (male vs. female) | 1.35 (0.95–1.94) | 0.10 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Tumor stage (I and II vs. III and IV) | 1.65 (1.09–2.49) | 0.02 | 1.78 (1.16–2.74) | 0.01 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| EBV infection (positive vs. negative) | 0.94 (0.48–1.85) | 0.86 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MSI (MSI-H vs. MSI-L and MSS) | 1.94 (0.53–7.11) | 0.19 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| TP53 (mutation vs. wildtype) | 0.65 (0.32–0.84) | 0.06 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Asian (yes vs. no) | 0.59 (0.37–0.95) | 0.03 | 0.54 (0.33–0.87) | 0.01 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| SMARCA4 (mutation vs. wildtype) | 0.45 (0.16–1.28) | 0.13 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Risk score (high-risk vs. low-risk) | 2.03 (1.45–2.84) | <0.001 | 2.23 (1.57–3.12) | <0.001 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| GSE84437 cohort | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Age (≥65 vs. <65) | 1.37 (1.04–1.81) | 0.02 | 0.73 (0.56–0.97) | 0.03 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Sex (male vs. female) | 1.24 (0.91–1.77) | 0.17 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Tumor stage (I and II vs. III and IV) | 3.71 (1.90–7.24) | <0.001 | 0.28 (0.14–0.54) | <0.001 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Risk score (high-risk vs. low-risk) | 1.48 (1.13–1.95) | 0.005 | 1.40 (1.07–1.85) | 0.02 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| GSE13861 cohort | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Age (≥65 vs. <65) | 1.20 (0.58–2.52) | 0.62 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Sex (male vs. female) | 1.27 (0.59–2.73) | 0.55 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Tumor stage (I and II vs. III and IV) | 7.70 (2.32–25.54) | <0.001 | 7.12 (2.14–23.70) | <0.001 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Risk score (high-risk vs. low-risk) | 2.24 (1.04–4.83) | 0.04 | 1.87 (0.87–4.03) | 0.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Abbreviations: EBV: Epstein-Barr virus; MSI: microsatellite instability; MSS: microsatellite stability. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Discussion
Studies about GC, one of the most prevalent gastrointestinal (GI) malignancies, have increasingly concentrated on the prognostic implications of several signatures [17, 18]. Based on the senescence-related DEGs, a novel signature was constructed herein, which can realize patient stratification for the prognosis of GC. An improved OS was observed in patients with low-risk scores. In addition, the high-risk group exhibited a higher abundance of immunosuppressive cells, suggesting that they might benefit from ICIs. Indeed, risk-scores were lower in patients who responded to immunotherapy compared with those who did not respond in the PRJEB25780 cohort. Altogether, we developed a six-senescence-gene prognostic model, which can not only differentiate the prognosis but also guide potential treatment.
In earlier research, prognostic models for GC patients were developed using sequencing data and clinicopathologic indicators [19–22]. Clinicopathologic features such as the tumor stage, histologic grade, abnormal tumor markers, and lymphovascular space invasion are widely used to evaluate the prognosis of GC patients [23]. Utilizing gene expression patterns of GC patients from the TCGA and GEO databases, we were able to find a trustworthy indicator of GC prognosis. Our prognostic signature is of great potential to be easily applied to clinical practice for individualized prediction of GC survival. In addition, our research has another advantage. The six DEGs offer a promising assay, which is practical in actual clinical settings due to a low cost, short turn-around time, and no reliance on bioinformatics expertise. Reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) can be easily implemented in the clinical setting, making it attractive for an easier clinical translation. The six DEGs observed in our study were of significant prognostic value, allowing the risk stratification of GC patients.
The biological features of GC may aid in predicting which tumors will benefit from chemotherapy and other targeted agents [24]. Compared to the traditional prognostic models, our model can provide additional biological features, such as TIME. Evidence in recent years has repeatedly highlighted that the interactions between cancer cells and TIME affect tumorigenesis [25, 26]. Prognostic signatures related to the TIME possess the considerable prospect to explore innovative molecular targets for immunological therapy and contribute to personalized patient care. Generally, the immune response is one of the most important results of cellular senescence [27, 28], which induces the enrichment of immune cells and promotes tumor growth [29]. The regulation of the key senescence-related genes in TIME, however, is largely unknown in GC. In this study, the high-risk group exhibited more intensive infiltration of M2 macrophages and worse prognosis, which coincides with two earlier studies revealing the role of M2 macrophages in tumor malignant features including migration and invasion [30, 31]. Another previous study revealed that the activated and resting T cells CD4 memory were enriched in head and neck cancer samples with high- and low-TMB, respectively [32], which is consistent with our results. Additionally, of the 6 genes involved in the signature, most were important for the chemotaxis of leukocytes, angiogenesis of tumor tissue, and systematic immunological functions [33–36].
Further, the drug sensitivity analyses add evidence for our model’s association with cancer and its potential clinical application. The PI3K-mTOR signaling pathway plays an important role in cancers and its inhibitors have shown efficacy in clinical trials [37]. The PI3K-mTOR inhibitors enhance nab-paclitaxel antitumor response in GC [38]. Our model based on the six DEGs can be used for risk stratification in GC. Furthermore, it may guide the clinical application of PI3K-mTOR inhibitors. Besides, there is not much evidence to support the use of pembrolizumab in individuals with untreated GC who might not benefit from chemotherapy [39]. Given this, our study demonstrated the utility of the six-DEG signature as a model to identify the GC patients who may benefit from pembrolizumab. The associations between the risk-score and immune landscape highlight the need to further understand the mechanisms of these DEGs for the development of treatment strategies.
As for limitations, the retrospective nature of this study has determined the limited capacity of the model, and prospective validation in well-designed cohorts is required to demonstrate its clinical value. Despite the consistent results among the survival analysis of TCGA and GEO cohorts, gene expression levels, IHC staining, and single-cell sequencing results, in vitro and in vivo experimental validation were highly recommended to examine the significance of the risk-score in GC and other cancers. Besides, further promising studies are recommended to explore the linkage between the 6 senescence-related genes and response to chemotherapeutic and targeted chemicals in animal models.
In summary, a novel and robust prognostic model consisting of six senescence-related genes was developed and validated in patients with GC. Additionally, the score of this model was associated with TIME and responses to chemotherapeutic, targeted, and immunotherapeutic therapies. The senescence gene-based model can potentially change the management of GC by enabling risk stratification and predicting response to systemic therapy.
Materials and Methods
Data and study design
The transcriptomic, genomic, and survival data of 348 GC and 31 controls were retrieved from the TCGA-STAD (Data Release 31.0) cohort database. The transcriptomic and clinical data of 431 GC samples and 45 GC patients treated with pembrolizumab monotherapy were collected from the GSE84437 and the PRJEB25780, respectively. The expression matrix of tumor and normal tissues from the GSE54129 cohort (111 GC samples and 21 normal controls) and the GSE13861 cohort (66 GC samples and 19 normal controls), respectively. The single-cell RNA sequencing data of 13 fresh human tissue samples from nine GC patients were retrieved from the GSE134520 dataset. The process and specific cohorts used in the analysis were depicted in Figure 5.
Model development and verification
The prognostic value of every single senescence-related gene was examined by univariable cox regression using the R package “survival” according to the log2 (Fragments Per Kilobase Million + 1) value of each gene. The LASSO method (the “glmnet” R package, Version 4.3) was utilized for model construction in the training set (the TCGA-STAD cohort) based on the DEGs with a significant association with OS [40]. The number of genes input for model construction was selected according to the minimum penalty parameter (λ) by ten-fold cross-validation. The risk-score was determined as follows:
“n” depicted the number of genes involved in the model, while“expi” and “βi” represents the mRNA level and regression coefficient of gene i, respectively.
Assigned with a risk-score, patients were stratified into high- or low-risk groups by the median value in the cohort. The R package “survival” (version 3.4.0) was applied for survival analysis comparing the OS between the high- and low-risk groups. The prognostic value of the model was evaluated with the AUC and C-index values, and visualized by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve by the “timeROC” R package (Version 0.4). The GSE84437 and the GSE13861 cohorts were utilized for validation.
Tumor immune infiltration analysis
Based on the cell types categorized by the deconvolution approach in CIBERSORT [41], the density of immune cells in tumor was identified. [42]. The potential association of the risk-score and TIME was analyzed by Spearman correlation.
Association analysis of the risk-score and drug sensitivities
We analyzed the response to pembrolizumab monotherapy in GC patients from the PRJEB25780 cohort. Based on the genomics of drug sensitivities in cancer (GDSC) database (https://www.cancerrxgene.org), we calculated the correlations (Spearman correlation analysis) of the half maximal inhibitory concentration (IC50) with the mRNA expression and the risk-score. The results are obtained by the “pRRophetic” (Version 4.0.2) and the “ggplot2” (Version 3.3.6) R packages. P values were adjusted by the FDR method.
Statistical analysis
Statistical results generated in this study were conducted in R (Version 3.6.0), SPSS (Version 23.0), and GraphPad Prism (Version 8). Wilcox test was used to analyze the association between the senescence-related gene signature and immune characteristics. Survival analyses were conducted by the Log-rank test, with visualization by the Kaplan-Meier (KM) curves. The independence of the prognostic signature was verified by univariable and multivariable Cox regression, with the input of significant variables into the multivariable analysis by P < 0.05. The accuracy of the signature was examined and depicted by the area under the curve (AUC). If not stated above, P < 0.05 illustrated statistical significance.
Author Contributions
XS and CJ served as co-first authors, each with equal contribution to the manuscript. WC, YX, TZ, and QZ developed the concept and designed the study. GW and SC performed the statistical analysis. All authors participated in the acquisition, analysis, interpretation of data, drafting of the manuscript, and approval of the submitted version. HS and LM performed a critical revision of the manuscript for important intellectual content. HS supervised the study.
Conflicts of Interest
We have no conflicts of interest to disclose, except the employment of WC, YX, TZ, QZ, GW, SC, YH by Burning Rock Biotech.
Funding
This study was funded by The Science and Technology Project of The Health Planning Committee of Sichuan Municipality (21PJ147) and the 2018 Entrepreneurial Leading Talent of Guangzhou Huangpu District and Guangzhou Development District (2022-L023).
Editorial Note
This corresponding author has a verified history of publications using a personal email address for correspondence.
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