Research Paper Volume 13, Issue 4 pp 5238—5249
A simple-to-use web-based calculator for survival prediction in Parkinson’s disease
- 1 Department of Rehabilitation Medicine, First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University, Nanchang 330006, Jiangxi, China
- 2 Department of Endocrinology and Metabolism, First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University, Nanchang 330006, Jiangxi, China
- 3 Department of Neurology, Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University, Wuhan 430071, Hubei, China
Received: October 23, 2020 Accepted: December 10, 2020 Published: February 1, 2021
https://doi.org/10.18632/aging.202443How to Cite
Copyright: © 2021 Tang et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY 3.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
Abstract
Background: To establish and validate a nomogram and corresponding web-based calculator to predict the survival of patients with Parkinson’s disease (PD).
Methods: In this cohort study, we retrospectively evaluated patients (n=497) with PD using a two-stage design, from March 2004 to November 2007 and from July 2005 to July 2015. Predictive variables included in the model were identified by univariate and multiple Cox proportional hazard analyses in the training set.
Results: Independent prognostic factors including age, PD duration, and Hoehn and Yahr stage were determined and included in the model. The model showed good discrimination power with the area under the curve (AUC) values generated to predict 4-, 6-, and 8-year survival in the training set being 0.716, 0.783, and 0.814, respectively. In the validation set, the AUCs of 4- and 6-year survival predictions were 0.85 and 0.924, respectively. Calibration plots and decision curve analysis showed good model performance both in the training and validation sets. For convenient application, we established a web-based calculator (https://tangyl.shinyapps.io/PDprognosis/).
Conclusions: We developed a satisfactory, simple-to-use nomogram and corresponding web-based calculator based on three relevant factors to predict prognosis and survival of patients with PD. This model can aid personalized treatment and clinical decision-making.
Abbreviations
PD: Parkinson’s disease; HY: Hoehn and Yahr stage; AUC: area under the curve; CRP: C-reactive protein; MMSE: Mini-Mental State Examination; NSAIDs: nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug; C-index: concordance index; ROC: receiver operating characteristic; DCA: decision curve analyses.