Prediction of pregnancy outcome in fresh in vitro fertilization/intracytoplasmic sperm injection treatment in patients with poor ovarian reserve

We retrospectively analyzed the clinical data from 39,185 cycles who undergoing in vitro fertilization/intracytoplasmic sperm injection (IVF/ICSI) in the First People's Hospital of Shangqiu, these poor ovarian reserve patients were further categorized into the "unexpected" group (n=3337) and the "expected" group (n=2667) based on POSEIDON classification. In "expected" group, logistic regression analysis showed that female age (OR 0.920; 95% C.I 0.902~0.939; P < 0.001), treatment cycles (OR 0.693; 95% C.I 0.560~0.859; P = 0.001), duration of Gn administered (OR 1.077; 95% C.I 1.027~1.129; P = 0.002) and transferable embryos (OR 1.377; 95% C.I 1.319~1.437; P < 0.001) is independent predictive factors of live birth. In "expected" group, logistic regression analysis showed that female age (OR 0.874; 95% C.I 0.848~0.900; P < 0.001), AFC (OR 1.285; 95% C.I 1.131~1.461; P < 0.001), total dosage of Gn administered (OR 1.001; 95% C.I 1.000~1.002; P < 0.001), duration of Gn administered (OR 0.784; 95% C.I 0.639~0.961; P = 0.019), MII number (OR 0.841; 95% C.I 0.717~0.986; P = 0.032) and transferable embryos (OR 2.057; 95% C.I 1.762~2.400; P < 0.001) is independent predictive factors of live birth. We also established a smooth curve fit to predict the probability of live birth among the POSEIDON "unexpected" and "expected" group. These independent predictive factors on the pregnancy outcome of IVF/ICSI and the successful establishment of smooth curve fit can provide valuable reference for treats poor ovarian reserve patients in clinical work.